Football Betting

Newcastle Relegation

City of Newcastle – what exactly have you done to offend the gods? The collapse of Northern Rock, dramatic storms, the arrival of feral cockney Dennis Wise to help undermine the football team, and now the government clamping down on automatic health care for the super-obese. Your Tyneside lifestyle really seems to have got someone's goat. Then just this morning, chaos for commuters as a hotel burns down and guests are paraded into the rain and 70mph gales in their jimjams. How much more, O Lord, how much more? Well, possibly quite a lot more, actually. A study of the heavens reveals that even relegation is indicated, assuming there's anything left of the north east by May to relegate, that is. It couldn't happen, could it?

 

» Newcastle and Reading currently have the joint worst form in the league, having scraped nine points each in their last twelve games. Sunderland and Middlesbrough, who sit below Newcastle in the league, are currently ninth and tenth in the form guide respectively.

» Having 27 points at this stage is by no means safe. Sheffield Utd (2007), Ipswich (2002) and Crystal Palace (1996 and 1994) all went down with that amount of points at this stage of the season. Several clubs had even more points by game 24 but couldn’t avoid the drop: Wimbledon had 28 in 2000, Sunderland had 29 in 1997, Norwich had a whopping 34 in 1995 and Middlesbrough had 30 in 1994.

» Being in twelfth place in no assurance either – Sunderland were eleventh when they dropped in 1997, while Norwich were tenth when they went down in 1995.

» This season, Newcastle have all lost five away games with teams from the top half of the league (3-1 at Man City; 3-1 at Blackburn; 2-1 at Chelsea; 6-0 at Manchester Utd; 3-0 at Arsenal). The only top half teams they have beaten have been Everton (3-2) and West Ham (3-1).

» After this weekend, their next four matches are with opposition from the top half of the league, and they must play top half teams eight more times this season. If they do not beat any of these teams, they can only win eighteen more points this season.

» In the past ten years, clubs have needed an average of 37.5 points to stay up. Newcastle need just 10.5 more points in their remaining fourteen matches to hit that figure, but they have averaged 1.1 points a game so far this season and just 0.75 per game in the last twelve. At the latter rate, the Magpies will earn less than eight points by the close of the season.

» In Premier League history, there have been just two occasions when none of the relegated teams played in stripes (2003/04 and 1998/99). If Derby and Fulham go down, there’s a stripy place awaiting the Magpies...

31/01/08

Premier League relegation market, best odds